Reuters SENSEX Technical Analysis – By Phil Smith
Tuesday, February 09, 2010 07:38 CST

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Daily Charts

 

HANG SENG

SHANGHAI

SENSEX

GOLD

OIL

Weekly Charts

 

HANG SENG

SHANGHAI

NIKKEI

SENSEX

GOLD

OIL

S&P 500

DLR TRADE WEIGHTED

Near term (daily chart). A bit of support on Monday with the market stretched to the downside as you can see from the RSI. A very high correlation with the US market at the moment.

The MACD is aggressively bearish still and the intermediate trend is down. The Parabolic-SAR also bearish. You can see how well both have signaled this latest downturn.

Most important is the high correlation with Wall Street and the scale of the possible declines there. Watch Wall Street.   

The market was struggling to make upside because of that relatively low volume which has been falling away steadily as you can see.

As I have been saying for a while, the longer term bearish factor is the fact the price action has penetrated the second speed resistance line as shown on the second chart and that is a break of a three month uptrend line.

It’s getting to a stage where our topping pattern is looking more formed. With the volume tending to go lower this pattern looks like having some validity. 

Obvious near term supports as marked on the top chart and we have bounced off the very old 15,577 support line nicely last September. This is very old support and a good example of how it is wise to keep old key supports drawn on the chart as they often come back into play. I’ve marked it in red on the second chart and you can see how significant it has been in the past in terms of support and resistance.

In terms of the S&P 500. As per the last chart you can see the correlation has turned high again and the US markets are having a big influence again. Watch Wall Street.

If you are an investor in the India markets take some heart from the fact that India has outperformed the world’s markets by a good margin. The last chart is the SENSEX plotted against the MSCI global stock index and I have zeroed the study at the start of the rally last March. A pretty good margin versus the rest of the world.  

See the glossary link above for an explanation of the studies used above.    

Reuters Market Technicals

By Phil Smith mailto:technicals@reutersindia.net

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