Reuters SENSEX Technical Analysis – By Phil Smith
Thursday, March 11, 2010 07:36 CST

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Daily Charts

 

HANG SENG

SHANGHAI

SENSEX

GOLD

OIL

Weekly Charts

 

HANG SENG

SHANGHAI

NIKKEI

SENSEX

GOLD

OIL

S&P 500

DLR TRADE WEIGHTED

Near term (daily chart). The SENSEX had another narrow day on Wednesday with the Slow Stochastic starting to turn down for a cross and switch in the short term trend. But the MACD is still underlying bullish.

The high correlation with Wall Street is still a very strong factor but as you can see from the third chart but this is starting to break down a little.

As I have been saying for a while, the longer term bearish factor is the fact the price action had penetrated the second speed resistance line and since we have had a broad sideways move. 

We are also right on the 200-day Moving Average line and a break of that would be bearish.

It’s getting to a stage where our topping pattern is looking more formed. With the volume tending to go lower this pattern looks like having some validity. 

Obvious near term supports as marked on the top chart and we have bounced off the very old 15,577 support line nicely last September. This is very old support and a good example of how it is wise to keep old key supports drawn on the chart as they often come back into play. I’ve marked it in red on the second chart and you can see how significant it has been in the past in terms of support and resistance.

If you are an investor in the India markets take some heart from the fact that India has outperformed the world’s markets by a good margin. The last chart is the SENSEX plotted against the MSCI global stock index and I have zeroed the study at the start of the rally last March. A pretty good margin versus the rest of the world.  

See the glossary link above for an explanation of the studies used above.    

Reuters Market Technicals

By Phil Smith mailto:technicals@reutersindia.net

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